Contrarian Track Record

Was the bear case right?

Every thesis is checked against real price action at 30, 90, and 180 days after the debate. A thesis is scored as bear case validatedwhen the tracked plays fall more than 15% from their price at generation — the Contrarian's downside warning proved out. Published automatically, unedited.

Methodology: outcomes are scored automatically from the Structural and Moonshot play prices at generation vs. current market price, averaged across both tracked tickers. This is a price-based proxy for whether the Contrarian's downside scenario materialised, not a judgement on whether every specific risk named in the debate occurred. Not financial advice.