How to use The 4 Horsemen

The system works best when you give it a clear starting point. The more specific the input, the more targeted the output — but you don't need to write a thesis yourself. A ticker, a company name, a sector, or a theme is enough.

The guided mode builds the full debate task automatically from your ticker or theme — you don't need to write the prompt yourself. Use the custom mode only if you have a specific angle you want the agents to start from.

The investment horizon (3–10 years) affects how the agents frame macro context and risk. For most long-term equity theses, 7 years is a reasonable default.

The report is structured in order of what matters most to a long-term investor. Read it top to bottom the first time; on subsequent reviews, focus on the sections most relevant to current market conditions.

The Debate Replay (linked from the report) shows the full phase-by-phase exchange — every argument the Contrarian made and how the other agents responded. Read this when you want to understand the reasoning behind the verdict, not just the verdict itself.

The conviction level — HIGH, MEDIUM-HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW — reflects what was left after the Contrarian's full attack. It is not a prediction of returns, and it is not a buy signal.

Every report produces two specific asset recommendations rather than a general verdict on the queried ticker. This is by design.

Crucially, each play includes explicit reasoning explaining how it connects to your original queried ticker or theme. This link matters: if you queried AAPL and the structural play is TSMC, the report explains why TSMC is the better proxy for the specific thesis the debate produced — not just a generic recommendation.

Every completed report automatically generates a Thesis Tracker at /trackers/[id]. This is the tool you'll return to quarterly — not the full report.

The tracker preserves the original thesis alongside the Contrarian's bear case warning (verbatim), the monitoring checklist, and a log of any conviction changes over time. Think of it as your accountability document for the position.

A simple quarterly review workflow:

1. Open the tracker for each active position.
2. Read the Bear Case Warning first. Has anything occurred that makes this more credible?
3. Work through the Monitoring Checklist. Which pillars are intact, which are weakening?
4. Check the Catalyst Calendar. Are the expected catalysts on track?
5. Decide: rerun, hold, or exit. If the core thesis is intact, hold. If a thesis-killer event has occurred or is more likely, rerun or exit.

You can add update log entries directly in the tracker to record conviction changes and the reasons behind them. This creates a durable record of your thinking over time — useful both for accountability and for future reviews.

Every stock that appears as a Structural or Moonshot Play is automatically added to your Watchlist at /watchlist, with a live price feed and a buy zone derived from the entry guidance in the report.

The buy zone is a price range — not a target price. It reflects the level at which the analysis considered the risk/reward to be attractive relative to the thesis. When a stock is above the zone, the analysis considers it to be pricing in the upside already. When it's below the zone, it may have sold off past your entry range.

Buy Zone Alerts (configurable in Account → Alert Preferences) send an email when a watchlisted stock enters its range. You can remove any ticker from the watchlist at any time — this doesn't affect the underlying report or tracker.

Configurable in Account → Alert Preferences. Two options:

Earnings alerts are sent once per earnings event. If you've already received an alert or auto-run for a given date, it won't repeat.

Available to Pro and Alchemist subscribers at /stress-test. This tests your whole portfolio against four historical crash scenarios, rather than evaluating a single thesis.

Enter your current equity holdings — each as a ticker and a percentage weight, totalling 100%. The system calculates how your portfolio would have performed in each scenario, then generates an AI narrative identifying where concentration risk and correlation failure would have caused the most damage.

A debate report reflects market conditions, available data, and the analyst debate at a specific point in time. Markets change — rerunning is how you keep your conviction current.

Good reasons to rerun:

• Approximately 100 days after the original report — the 100-Day Rerun Reminder alert covers this automatically.
• After the company reports earnings — especially if results significantly missed or beat expectations.
• After a major macro regime change: a rate cycle inflection, a significant geopolitical event, or a policy shift that directly affects the thesis.
• If the Contrarian's bear case from the original debate starts looking more credible based on current events.
• Before adding meaningfully to a position — especially if more than 60 days have passed since the last report.

Rerunning consumes one credit and produces a new report and tracker. The original report remains in your library — useful for comparing conviction levels and monitoring checklist status over time.

The Dividend Safety Analysis is a separate four-phase debate run by four income-specialist agents — distinct from the Alpha Debate team. Launch it from /dividend/run or from the Dividend section in the nav.

Enter a ticker and click Analyse. The debate runs for 8–10 minutes across four phases: Income Thesis → Data Validation → The Great Debate → Dividend Safety Report. You can watch it stream live or leave and return — the report will be in your library when complete.

Good starting points for a first dividend run: JNJ (Dividend King, 60+ consecutive years), KO (Aristocrat, strong brand moat), ABBV (high yield with near-term patent risk — good for testing the bear case), O (REIT monthly payer).

The dividend report is structured differently from the Alpha Report — it is focused entirely on income sustainability rather than price upside. The key sections:

The Debate Replay for a dividend report shows all six income agents — Income Strategist, Balance Sheet Analyst, Dividend Quant, the Dividend Bear, the Balance Sheet defence, and the Quant referee verdict. It is the full reasoning trail behind the Safety Score.

Every completed Dividend Safety Report is automatically added to your Dividend Watchlist at /dividend/watchlist. This is separate from the equity Watchlist — it shows income-specific columns: Safety Score, cut risk, current yield, 5-year DGR, and days to the next ex-dividend date.

Only the most recent report per ticker is shown — if you rerun JNJ, the watchlist updates to the latest analysis automatically.

The Dividend Calculators at /dividend/tools include two tools:

Three alert types are available for dividend holdings, configurable in Account → Alert Preferences under "Dividend Alerts". All three are opt-in by default.